2009 saw less consolidation among third-party publishers than I was expecting, but I believe it's still on the cards for 2010. So who are the likely candidates?
Well, in Japan, Konami and Capcom are both going through rocky patches. Konami had a quiet 2009 with no major Metal Gear Solid release. They cancelled Six Days in Fallujah at a late date and have a lot riding on the new Castlevania title (now in development at Spanish studio Mercurysteam under the watchful eye of Hideo Kojima), as well as PSP title MGS: Peace Walker.
Capcom also had a few downs in 2009, with Bionic Commando falling short for instance and has recently slipped several high profile titles including Lost Planet 2 (which had a poor demo) and Dead Rising 2. On the other hand, Street Fighter IV was critically acclaimed and sold strongly.
In the West, THQ is looking rather weak. It used to have a bedrock of wrestling titles and licensed children's movie tie-ins and while it recently settled the long-running lawsuit over WWE rights, the movie tie-ins just aren't bringing in the bacon like they used to. It's also likely to record one of the first high-profile underperformers of the year with Darksiders.
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
Prediction: Codemasters will not survive 2010 in its current form
I predict that long-established UK publisher Codemasters will finally run out of lives in 2010.
The departure of key staff is probably a warning sign and as it gets ever harder for a medium-sized generalist publisher to stay in business, something has to give. "Codies" has allegedly had trouble paying external developers in 2010 and has squandered cash on Far Eastern MMO conversions (not to mention the Dragon Empires fiasco that they airbrushed from history). Despite continued strong performance from its racing franchises, especially DIRT and GRID, 2009 saw a number of titles that have probably not brought in strong revenues, often seemingly due to poor marketing materials and spend (Overlord 2, FUEL) or tough market conditions and lengthy development (Operation Flashpoint 2).
I should point out that in the event of the company going to the wall, the core internal development teams are quite likely to be snapped up by another publisher looking to get into the racing genre. Personally, I feel that Codies should have refocused as a boutique racing game house at least 12 months ago.
Bonus prediction: Depending on how much was paid for it, Codemasters pulled a blinder by picking up the Formula One licence, with the 2009 season being one of the most open and exciting for years and 2010 looking like a mouthwatering prospect with a returning Schumacher facing the British McLaren dream team of Hamilton & Button, along with a reinvigorated Alonso & Massa. I predict that Codies will deliver a strong F1 game and it will sell well. Well enough to make enough money, given the license costs and the continued lack of major interest in F1 in the States, to stop it being their swansong?
The departure of key staff is probably a warning sign and as it gets ever harder for a medium-sized generalist publisher to stay in business, something has to give. "Codies" has allegedly had trouble paying external developers in 2010 and has squandered cash on Far Eastern MMO conversions (not to mention the Dragon Empires fiasco that they airbrushed from history). Despite continued strong performance from its racing franchises, especially DIRT and GRID, 2009 saw a number of titles that have probably not brought in strong revenues, often seemingly due to poor marketing materials and spend (Overlord 2, FUEL) or tough market conditions and lengthy development (Operation Flashpoint 2).
I should point out that in the event of the company going to the wall, the core internal development teams are quite likely to be snapped up by another publisher looking to get into the racing genre. Personally, I feel that Codies should have refocused as a boutique racing game house at least 12 months ago.
Bonus prediction: Depending on how much was paid for it, Codemasters pulled a blinder by picking up the Formula One licence, with the 2009 season being one of the most open and exciting for years and 2010 looking like a mouthwatering prospect with a returning Schumacher facing the British McLaren dream team of Hamilton & Button, along with a reinvigorated Alonso & Massa. I predict that Codies will deliver a strong F1 game and it will sell well. Well enough to make enough money, given the license costs and the continued lack of major interest in F1 in the States, to stop it being their swansong?
Prediction: Riccitiello will not finish the year as Electronic Arts CEO
I predict that Jon Riccitiello will be forced to stand down from his position as EA CEO sometime in 2010, because of a number of missteps by the company in 2008 and 2009, including:
The Pandemic issues in particular are ones that Riccitiello can't shift blame for - he bought Pandemic and Bioware from his old company, Elevation Partners, for an eye watering $860m in 2007. Unless Bioware's Star Wars MMO, The Old Republic, becomes a "World of Warcraft"-level success, this will have been a gross overvaluation, but nevertheless it saw Jon personally pocket $5m.
Having been displaced as the top Western third-party publisher by the Activision-Vivendi merger, 2009 was always going to be an awkward year for EA. The company is not used to being #2 at anything and has been slow to tackle the incredible middle-management bloat that holds it back like a huge ball and chain.
I believe that, as often is the case, past sins catch up with someone just as performance improves.
I think that 2010 will actually be a very strong year for EA. It's a (soccer) World Cup year and with FIFA 10 completing the turnaround in football game fortunes over the last three years (PES is now the game looking second-rate and tired and FIFA is now a bigger seller for EA than Madden), the "Road to South Africa" edition (or whatever they call it) will sell very well in the summer, even picking up some (moderate) sales in non-traditional territories such as the US, where the prospect of a US-England group game will pique interest.
The new Medal of Honor game, set in a modern-day Afghanistan, will deliver a more coherent and lengthier single-player campaign than Modern Warfare 2 and with DICE working on the multiplayer, may possibly even challenge its multiplayer dominance. Activision are not without their problems either we should add - Tony Hawk's RIDE has been a disaster for instance (more on that later).
EA's MMA game will be surprisingly good and sell well (but will still be heavily outsold by the new UFC title from THQ.) Bioware will have a strong year with Dragon Age posting good sales, Mass Effect 2 performing well and The Old Republic getting off to a (relatively) painless launch.
Bonus prediction: EA's lawsuit against repulsive trademark troll Tim Langdell will result in the termination of his marks, to much rejoicing.
- Choosing to allow Pandemic to make an open world Batman game, leading to EA failing to release a game for the enormously successful The Dark Knight, costing EA an estimated $100m of revenue and leading to the closure of the Pandemic Brisbane
- Pandemic LA's The Saboteur limping to a lacklustre release, resulting in the closure of the studio
- Rock Band: The Beatles failing to set the world alight
- Paying more than $250m for social gaming company Playfish, a move that probably makes long term sense but which has the feel of a company thrashing around for the next big thing
The Pandemic issues in particular are ones that Riccitiello can't shift blame for - he bought Pandemic and Bioware from his old company, Elevation Partners, for an eye watering $860m in 2007. Unless Bioware's Star Wars MMO, The Old Republic, becomes a "World of Warcraft"-level success, this will have been a gross overvaluation, but nevertheless it saw Jon personally pocket $5m.
Having been displaced as the top Western third-party publisher by the Activision-Vivendi merger, 2009 was always going to be an awkward year for EA. The company is not used to being #2 at anything and has been slow to tackle the incredible middle-management bloat that holds it back like a huge ball and chain.
I believe that, as often is the case, past sins catch up with someone just as performance improves.
I think that 2010 will actually be a very strong year for EA. It's a (soccer) World Cup year and with FIFA 10 completing the turnaround in football game fortunes over the last three years (PES is now the game looking second-rate and tired and FIFA is now a bigger seller for EA than Madden), the "Road to South Africa" edition (or whatever they call it) will sell very well in the summer, even picking up some (moderate) sales in non-traditional territories such as the US, where the prospect of a US-England group game will pique interest.
The new Medal of Honor game, set in a modern-day Afghanistan, will deliver a more coherent and lengthier single-player campaign than Modern Warfare 2 and with DICE working on the multiplayer, may possibly even challenge its multiplayer dominance. Activision are not without their problems either we should add - Tony Hawk's RIDE has been a disaster for instance (more on that later).
EA's MMA game will be surprisingly good and sell well (but will still be heavily outsold by the new UFC title from THQ.) Bioware will have a strong year with Dragon Age posting good sales, Mass Effect 2 performing well and The Old Republic getting off to a (relatively) painless launch.
Bonus prediction: EA's lawsuit against repulsive trademark troll Tim Langdell will result in the termination of his marks, to much rejoicing.
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
Beers of the Month - November 2009
Time has really flown this year and we're now into the cold months, so it is time for heavier, stronger brews. Notable beer outings in November were my annual Bonfire pilgrimage to Lewes, a cider and perry tasting at the office, a Brewdog tasting at the Rake (which included their limited edition "Shark") and the White Horse Old Ale festival at the end of the month.
This latter event boasted a truly excellent line-up of winter beers, including some UK greats on draught in the form of Thornbridge St. Petersburg, Bass P2 Imperial Stout, Gales Prize Old, Dark Star Imperial Stout and Thomas Hardy's Ale. However, my favourite beers of the festival, and thus my recommended beers for November are both Italian brews. Italy is not a country that many people would associate with fine beer. It is rather more well known for cars, shoes, wine and women but it is actually very much a rising star of the craft brewing world, with a number of artisinal brewers producing beers of superb quality.
Baladin Noel is a dark brown beer bursting with Christmas spices and rich fruit flavours. There's a peppery hint of alcohol at the finish, but if you would never guess it was 9% abv from drinking it. It's a sublime Christmas beer and my beer of the month for November.
Birra del Borgo Re Ale Extra provides a contrasting but equally excellent experience, as it is a robust IPA. A sublime nose of perfumy, floral and citrus hop notes leads into a wonderfully balanced sip. In the mouth it is lively and fresh with lots of peach and lycee flavours. I'm happy to highly recommend it!
This latter event boasted a truly excellent line-up of winter beers, including some UK greats on draught in the form of Thornbridge St. Petersburg, Bass P2 Imperial Stout, Gales Prize Old, Dark Star Imperial Stout and Thomas Hardy's Ale. However, my favourite beers of the festival, and thus my recommended beers for November are both Italian brews. Italy is not a country that many people would associate with fine beer. It is rather more well known for cars, shoes, wine and women but it is actually very much a rising star of the craft brewing world, with a number of artisinal brewers producing beers of superb quality.
Baladin Noel is a dark brown beer bursting with Christmas spices and rich fruit flavours. There's a peppery hint of alcohol at the finish, but if you would never guess it was 9% abv from drinking it. It's a sublime Christmas beer and my beer of the month for November.
Birra del Borgo Re Ale Extra provides a contrasting but equally excellent experience, as it is a robust IPA. A sublime nose of perfumy, floral and citrus hop notes leads into a wonderfully balanced sip. In the mouth it is lively and fresh with lots of peach and lycee flavours. I'm happy to highly recommend it!
Sunday, August 9, 2009
Been there, done that, got the glass
GBBF is done and dusted for another year. It hasn't really all settled in my mind yet, but as always, it was an immense pleasure to hang out and share beers with my fellow Ratebeerians. I've got about 70 rates to type up, including the ones from Chris's pre-GBBF tasting and the evening I spent at the Rake's Stone tasting. What makes this hobby so good? Mark Dredge has just put up a post on his blog that sums up the essence of why we drink superbly.
Saturday, August 1, 2009
Beers of the Month - July 2009
Drinking highlights in July included an afternoon of Hophead consumption in the Evening Star in Brighton, but the best moment of the month was getting to try some of the new 13th Anniversary Ale from Stone. It is my beer of the month for July. Greg Koch, CEO of Stone Brewing, was over in London and was given an understandably warm welcome by the London Ratebeer crowd when he came to the Rake.
If you know the brewery, you won't be surprised to hear than the beer is a monster with tons of resinous hop flavours and aromas, great malts that manage to hold their own and a sublime finish.
My highly commended beer for July is Brewdog 77 Lager. This is their new lager, that supercedes Cult and Hop Rocker. It lives up to its billing as "a lager that actually tastes of something". An uncomplicated, but extremely drinkable beer, it will be my quaffing beer of choice from now on.
If you know the brewery, you won't be surprised to hear than the beer is a monster with tons of resinous hop flavours and aromas, great malts that manage to hold their own and a sublime finish.
My highly commended beer for July is Brewdog 77 Lager. This is their new lager, that supercedes Cult and Hop Rocker. It lives up to its billing as "a lager that actually tastes of something". An uncomplicated, but extremely drinkable beer, it will be my quaffing beer of choice from now on.
Sunday, July 26, 2009
I love it when a prediction comes true
Especially if it's one of mine :-D Microsoft quietly announced at E3 that they will be beginning downloads of full retail Xbox 360 titles in the Autumn and it has now been announced that the Games on Demand functionality will be introduced with the next dashboard update, due on August 11th (though you'll need to ferret around in that press release to spot it!) Now the question is how long before we start seeing larger hard disks for the 360 hitting the streets?
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