Generally, when someone says "This is not a bubble", it's usually a sign that there is a bubble. Social gaming companies are commanding huge valuations and social games and casual MMOs are showing huge user numbers. This is a mini dotcom boom waiting to happen. As the opportunities to make money out of thin air with a quick IPO increase, so do the incentives to inflate subscriber numbers and revenues. It would be great to be proved wrong on this one, but I've got a hunch that one of the prominent companies in these sectors will experience a major, probably even fatal, blip in 2010.
That's not to say that social gaming won't be a major sector of the industry going forward. I think it will - the Facebook and iPhone app have replaced Solitaire and Minesweeper as the five minute timewasters of a new generation of office workers. (More on the psychology of boredom here.)
Bonus prediction: EA will bring its brands such as The Sims and FIFA to Facebook via Playfish, but the wider community will be nonplussed. Even The Sims is not a large brand compared to the user numbers that the likes of Mafia Wars and Farmville can boast.
Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
Prediction: The rush to game-specific peripherals has been blunted
The outright failure of Tony Hawk's RIDE, the relatively modest performance of DJ Hero and the slowing of sales of Guitar Hero and Rock Band are signs that people have enough plastic peripherals in their homes--- and that in the case of RIDE, making the control of the game nearer to the real thing is sometimes a very Bad Idea.
Prediction: At least two more publisher mergers will be announced in 2010
2009 saw less consolidation among third-party publishers than I was expecting, but I believe it's still on the cards for 2010. So who are the likely candidates?
Well, in Japan, Konami and Capcom are both going through rocky patches. Konami had a quiet 2009 with no major Metal Gear Solid release. They cancelled Six Days in Fallujah at a late date and have a lot riding on the new Castlevania title (now in development at Spanish studio Mercurysteam under the watchful eye of Hideo Kojima), as well as PSP title MGS: Peace Walker.
Capcom also had a few downs in 2009, with Bionic Commando falling short for instance and has recently slipped several high profile titles including Lost Planet 2 (which had a poor demo) and Dead Rising 2. On the other hand, Street Fighter IV was critically acclaimed and sold strongly.
In the West, THQ is looking rather weak. It used to have a bedrock of wrestling titles and licensed children's movie tie-ins and while it recently settled the long-running lawsuit over WWE rights, the movie tie-ins just aren't bringing in the bacon like they used to. It's also likely to record one of the first high-profile underperformers of the year with Darksiders.
Well, in Japan, Konami and Capcom are both going through rocky patches. Konami had a quiet 2009 with no major Metal Gear Solid release. They cancelled Six Days in Fallujah at a late date and have a lot riding on the new Castlevania title (now in development at Spanish studio Mercurysteam under the watchful eye of Hideo Kojima), as well as PSP title MGS: Peace Walker.
Capcom also had a few downs in 2009, with Bionic Commando falling short for instance and has recently slipped several high profile titles including Lost Planet 2 (which had a poor demo) and Dead Rising 2. On the other hand, Street Fighter IV was critically acclaimed and sold strongly.
In the West, THQ is looking rather weak. It used to have a bedrock of wrestling titles and licensed children's movie tie-ins and while it recently settled the long-running lawsuit over WWE rights, the movie tie-ins just aren't bringing in the bacon like they used to. It's also likely to record one of the first high-profile underperformers of the year with Darksiders.
Prediction: Codemasters will not survive 2010 in its current form
I predict that long-established UK publisher Codemasters will finally run out of lives in 2010.
The departure of key staff is probably a warning sign and as it gets ever harder for a medium-sized generalist publisher to stay in business, something has to give. "Codies" has allegedly had trouble paying external developers in 2010 and has squandered cash on Far Eastern MMO conversions (not to mention the Dragon Empires fiasco that they airbrushed from history). Despite continued strong performance from its racing franchises, especially DIRT and GRID, 2009 saw a number of titles that have probably not brought in strong revenues, often seemingly due to poor marketing materials and spend (Overlord 2, FUEL) or tough market conditions and lengthy development (Operation Flashpoint 2).
I should point out that in the event of the company going to the wall, the core internal development teams are quite likely to be snapped up by another publisher looking to get into the racing genre. Personally, I feel that Codies should have refocused as a boutique racing game house at least 12 months ago.
Bonus prediction: Depending on how much was paid for it, Codemasters pulled a blinder by picking up the Formula One licence, with the 2009 season being one of the most open and exciting for years and 2010 looking like a mouthwatering prospect with a returning Schumacher facing the British McLaren dream team of Hamilton & Button, along with a reinvigorated Alonso & Massa. I predict that Codies will deliver a strong F1 game and it will sell well. Well enough to make enough money, given the license costs and the continued lack of major interest in F1 in the States, to stop it being their swansong?
The departure of key staff is probably a warning sign and as it gets ever harder for a medium-sized generalist publisher to stay in business, something has to give. "Codies" has allegedly had trouble paying external developers in 2010 and has squandered cash on Far Eastern MMO conversions (not to mention the Dragon Empires fiasco that they airbrushed from history). Despite continued strong performance from its racing franchises, especially DIRT and GRID, 2009 saw a number of titles that have probably not brought in strong revenues, often seemingly due to poor marketing materials and spend (Overlord 2, FUEL) or tough market conditions and lengthy development (Operation Flashpoint 2).
I should point out that in the event of the company going to the wall, the core internal development teams are quite likely to be snapped up by another publisher looking to get into the racing genre. Personally, I feel that Codies should have refocused as a boutique racing game house at least 12 months ago.
Bonus prediction: Depending on how much was paid for it, Codemasters pulled a blinder by picking up the Formula One licence, with the 2009 season being one of the most open and exciting for years and 2010 looking like a mouthwatering prospect with a returning Schumacher facing the British McLaren dream team of Hamilton & Button, along with a reinvigorated Alonso & Massa. I predict that Codies will deliver a strong F1 game and it will sell well. Well enough to make enough money, given the license costs and the continued lack of major interest in F1 in the States, to stop it being their swansong?
Prediction: Riccitiello will not finish the year as Electronic Arts CEO
I predict that Jon Riccitiello will be forced to stand down from his position as EA CEO sometime in 2010, because of a number of missteps by the company in 2008 and 2009, including:
The Pandemic issues in particular are ones that Riccitiello can't shift blame for - he bought Pandemic and Bioware from his old company, Elevation Partners, for an eye watering $860m in 2007. Unless Bioware's Star Wars MMO, The Old Republic, becomes a "World of Warcraft"-level success, this will have been a gross overvaluation, but nevertheless it saw Jon personally pocket $5m.
Having been displaced as the top Western third-party publisher by the Activision-Vivendi merger, 2009 was always going to be an awkward year for EA. The company is not used to being #2 at anything and has been slow to tackle the incredible middle-management bloat that holds it back like a huge ball and chain.
I believe that, as often is the case, past sins catch up with someone just as performance improves.
I think that 2010 will actually be a very strong year for EA. It's a (soccer) World Cup year and with FIFA 10 completing the turnaround in football game fortunes over the last three years (PES is now the game looking second-rate and tired and FIFA is now a bigger seller for EA than Madden), the "Road to South Africa" edition (or whatever they call it) will sell very well in the summer, even picking up some (moderate) sales in non-traditional territories such as the US, where the prospect of a US-England group game will pique interest.
The new Medal of Honor game, set in a modern-day Afghanistan, will deliver a more coherent and lengthier single-player campaign than Modern Warfare 2 and with DICE working on the multiplayer, may possibly even challenge its multiplayer dominance. Activision are not without their problems either we should add - Tony Hawk's RIDE has been a disaster for instance (more on that later).
EA's MMA game will be surprisingly good and sell well (but will still be heavily outsold by the new UFC title from THQ.) Bioware will have a strong year with Dragon Age posting good sales, Mass Effect 2 performing well and The Old Republic getting off to a (relatively) painless launch.
Bonus prediction: EA's lawsuit against repulsive trademark troll Tim Langdell will result in the termination of his marks, to much rejoicing.
- Choosing to allow Pandemic to make an open world Batman game, leading to EA failing to release a game for the enormously successful The Dark Knight, costing EA an estimated $100m of revenue and leading to the closure of the Pandemic Brisbane
- Pandemic LA's The Saboteur limping to a lacklustre release, resulting in the closure of the studio
- Rock Band: The Beatles failing to set the world alight
- Paying more than $250m for social gaming company Playfish, a move that probably makes long term sense but which has the feel of a company thrashing around for the next big thing
The Pandemic issues in particular are ones that Riccitiello can't shift blame for - he bought Pandemic and Bioware from his old company, Elevation Partners, for an eye watering $860m in 2007. Unless Bioware's Star Wars MMO, The Old Republic, becomes a "World of Warcraft"-level success, this will have been a gross overvaluation, but nevertheless it saw Jon personally pocket $5m.
Having been displaced as the top Western third-party publisher by the Activision-Vivendi merger, 2009 was always going to be an awkward year for EA. The company is not used to being #2 at anything and has been slow to tackle the incredible middle-management bloat that holds it back like a huge ball and chain.
I believe that, as often is the case, past sins catch up with someone just as performance improves.
I think that 2010 will actually be a very strong year for EA. It's a (soccer) World Cup year and with FIFA 10 completing the turnaround in football game fortunes over the last three years (PES is now the game looking second-rate and tired and FIFA is now a bigger seller for EA than Madden), the "Road to South Africa" edition (or whatever they call it) will sell very well in the summer, even picking up some (moderate) sales in non-traditional territories such as the US, where the prospect of a US-England group game will pique interest.
The new Medal of Honor game, set in a modern-day Afghanistan, will deliver a more coherent and lengthier single-player campaign than Modern Warfare 2 and with DICE working on the multiplayer, may possibly even challenge its multiplayer dominance. Activision are not without their problems either we should add - Tony Hawk's RIDE has been a disaster for instance (more on that later).
EA's MMA game will be surprisingly good and sell well (but will still be heavily outsold by the new UFC title from THQ.) Bioware will have a strong year with Dragon Age posting good sales, Mass Effect 2 performing well and The Old Republic getting off to a (relatively) painless launch.
Bonus prediction: EA's lawsuit against repulsive trademark troll Tim Langdell will result in the termination of his marks, to much rejoicing.
Sunday, July 26, 2009
I love it when a prediction comes true
Especially if it's one of mine :-D Microsoft quietly announced at E3 that they will be beginning downloads of full retail Xbox 360 titles in the Autumn and it has now been announced that the Games on Demand functionality will be introduced with the next dashboard update, due on August 11th (though you'll need to ferret around in that press release to spot it!) Now the question is how long before we start seeing larger hard disks for the 360 hitting the streets?
Thursday, February 19, 2009
Trends in Gaming: 2009 will see downloads of full-sized retail X360 games via marketplace
In my last post, I mentioned that the Blu-Ray drive has hobbled the PS3 in terms of price competitiveness. I believe that it has also led Sony down what could very well be a dead-end path in the form of game sizes. When the PS3 was announced, Sony emphasised the advantage that the 50Gb of storage on each Blu-Ray disc gave to developers. They exhorted them to fill that space with extra content for their games and pushed a ‘more data is better’ line. Their ‘hardware company’ mentality led them to set great store by their new storage medium.
However, this looks increasing short-sighted. There is a strong consensus in the games industry and in the wider media industries that we are moving towards full digital distribution of media products and that the question is not whether physical media will die off, but just how soon? Like many things predicted to revolutionise the industry, it will probably not happen as quickly as some people claim, but it is very definitely coming.
Viewed through this lens, Microsoft’s decision to stick to the 7Gb DVD format for the Xbox 360 looks quite sensible. Microsoft released an external HD-DVD drive, mainly to act as a spoiler against Sony’s Blu-Ray format rather than through any meaningful belief that HD-DVD would become a leading format. With hindsight, it is apparent that the company felt that it could get by with a DVD drive for now and that the next generation of consoles would not sport disc drives at all.
Furthermore, it is a lot quicker to download 7Gb than 50Gb. MS began laying the foundation for the move to digital distribution in December 2007 by selling Xbox 1 games via the Xbox Live Marketplace under the heading of 'Xbox Originals', releasing a title or two a month through 2008. I predict that we will see full Xbox 360 retail titles sold in a similar manner in the second half of this year. I think that the games will be early titles from the Xbox Classics range, possibly ones where the sequel will be releasing at retail in Q4 2009.
I expect that Microsoft will provide extensive reassurance to traditional retail outlets, emphasising that releasing old titles in this manner will drum up interest for new releases, promising that only games over a certain age will be considered for the service and possibly providing more marketing support to retailers as a sweetener. However, this will be the velvet glove around the iron fist, the decorative sash tied around the handle of the katana. The real agenda will be getting the consumer used to buying full titles by direct download. I expect to see significant price cuts on Xbox 360 hard disks during the year and possibly even a larger size than the current 120Gb drive to support this move.
This year’s move to allow gamers to install games to the hard disc (but still requiring the disc in the drive to play them) can also be considered to further this agenda, in addition to being a good feature in its own right.
So there you go - an easily testable prediction. See if I'm right come 31st December and mock/praise accordingly!
However, this looks increasing short-sighted. There is a strong consensus in the games industry and in the wider media industries that we are moving towards full digital distribution of media products and that the question is not whether physical media will die off, but just how soon? Like many things predicted to revolutionise the industry, it will probably not happen as quickly as some people claim, but it is very definitely coming.
Viewed through this lens, Microsoft’s decision to stick to the 7Gb DVD format for the Xbox 360 looks quite sensible. Microsoft released an external HD-DVD drive, mainly to act as a spoiler against Sony’s Blu-Ray format rather than through any meaningful belief that HD-DVD would become a leading format. With hindsight, it is apparent that the company felt that it could get by with a DVD drive for now and that the next generation of consoles would not sport disc drives at all.
Furthermore, it is a lot quicker to download 7Gb than 50Gb. MS began laying the foundation for the move to digital distribution in December 2007 by selling Xbox 1 games via the Xbox Live Marketplace under the heading of 'Xbox Originals', releasing a title or two a month through 2008. I predict that we will see full Xbox 360 retail titles sold in a similar manner in the second half of this year. I think that the games will be early titles from the Xbox Classics range, possibly ones where the sequel will be releasing at retail in Q4 2009.
I expect that Microsoft will provide extensive reassurance to traditional retail outlets, emphasising that releasing old titles in this manner will drum up interest for new releases, promising that only games over a certain age will be considered for the service and possibly providing more marketing support to retailers as a sweetener. However, this will be the velvet glove around the iron fist, the decorative sash tied around the handle of the katana. The real agenda will be getting the consumer used to buying full titles by direct download. I expect to see significant price cuts on Xbox 360 hard disks during the year and possibly even a larger size than the current 120Gb drive to support this move.
This year’s move to allow gamers to install games to the hard disc (but still requiring the disc in the drive to play them) can also be considered to further this agenda, in addition to being a good feature in its own right.
So there you go - an easily testable prediction. See if I'm right come 31st December and mock/praise accordingly!
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Trends in Gaming: Spring 2009 is a critical period for the PS3
This post is less of a prediction and more of a summary of where things stand for Sony and the PS3 as 2009 rolls on. Sony are on the verge of posting a loss of over $1billion for their current financial year (to the end of March 2009) with the games division deep in the red.
Sony decided to not cut the price of the PS3 before Christmas 2008, choosing fewer sales at a higher price point over a sales boost at the expense of per-unit revenue. Unfortunately for them, with consumers becoming increasingly price-sensitive and the large price differential between the Xbox 360 & Wii and the pricier PS3 certainly hurt them when it came to sales. These numbers in particular look pretty nasty for the big black box.
Unfortunately for Sony, they don’t have much scope to cut the PS3 price, as the other divisions of the company, such as consumer electronics, movies and music are all being impacted by the recession. The price will certainly be cut in the spring, but how much? How consumers react will determine with 2009 is a good or bad year for the company. If sales pick up strongly, helped by the release of key first-party title Killzone 2 (due for release next week), then Sony should be able to make more headway at closing Microsoft’s installed base lead. However, if sales don’t show a significant uptick, Sony faces a tough year ahead. Microsoft has extremely deep coffers and its core Windows business is relatively recession-proof due to the ubiquity of the PC platform.
Microsoft can force the pricing of the Xbox 360 lower in response to Sony’s price-cut. As the economic downturn continues to bite, consumers are likely to be even more price conscious and Sony finds itself caught out by events, whereas Microsoft’s hand looks to be coming good. The Blu-Ray drive, which is mainly responsible for the high price of the console, now looks more of a burden that an advantage, for more than one reason (more of that in my next post!)
So are we looking at a 'high noon' moment for Sony? I certainly feel that if sales don't pick up over the spring, they may have to finally concede that they are not going to end up in #1 place this console generation. The global recession certainly provides them with some cover to admit to less than stellar performance. I wouldn't be surprised to see some Scooby Doo-esque statements around E3 time - "we would have gotten away with it as well, if it wasn't for that pesky recession!" It can certainly be argued that this would be healthy for Sony compared to the astronomical levels of hubris displayed in previous years.
Killzone 2 is also an interesting game to examine. It is getting good reviews and will undoubtedly help sales, but I don't feel that Killzone as a brand has become strongly linked to the core Playstation brand in the way that Halo and now Gears of War have becomed entwined with the Xbox brand (of course, that very closeness is a big factor in the difficulties Microsoft has had in expanding the Xbox 360 demographic away from core gamers!) Perhaps this is because the original game launched late in the PS2 lifecycle whereas it is usually games released at the console's launch or soon after that get associated with a platform in the collective consciousness. I don't think there is a big rump of people who are holding off buying a PS3 until Killzone 2 ships, whereas I'm fairly certain there were significant numbers of people who waited for the likes of Metal Gear Solid 4 (and may be waiting for Gran Turismo 5). The series just doesn't have that sort of fanatical following.
More "Trends in Gaming" later this week.
Sony decided to not cut the price of the PS3 before Christmas 2008, choosing fewer sales at a higher price point over a sales boost at the expense of per-unit revenue. Unfortunately for them, with consumers becoming increasingly price-sensitive and the large price differential between the Xbox 360 & Wii and the pricier PS3 certainly hurt them when it came to sales. These numbers in particular look pretty nasty for the big black box.
Unfortunately for Sony, they don’t have much scope to cut the PS3 price, as the other divisions of the company, such as consumer electronics, movies and music are all being impacted by the recession. The price will certainly be cut in the spring, but how much? How consumers react will determine with 2009 is a good or bad year for the company. If sales pick up strongly, helped by the release of key first-party title Killzone 2 (due for release next week), then Sony should be able to make more headway at closing Microsoft’s installed base lead. However, if sales don’t show a significant uptick, Sony faces a tough year ahead. Microsoft has extremely deep coffers and its core Windows business is relatively recession-proof due to the ubiquity of the PC platform.
Microsoft can force the pricing of the Xbox 360 lower in response to Sony’s price-cut. As the economic downturn continues to bite, consumers are likely to be even more price conscious and Sony finds itself caught out by events, whereas Microsoft’s hand looks to be coming good. The Blu-Ray drive, which is mainly responsible for the high price of the console, now looks more of a burden that an advantage, for more than one reason (more of that in my next post!)
So are we looking at a 'high noon' moment for Sony? I certainly feel that if sales don't pick up over the spring, they may have to finally concede that they are not going to end up in #1 place this console generation. The global recession certainly provides them with some cover to admit to less than stellar performance. I wouldn't be surprised to see some Scooby Doo-esque statements around E3 time - "we would have gotten away with it as well, if it wasn't for that pesky recession!" It can certainly be argued that this would be healthy for Sony compared to the astronomical levels of hubris displayed in previous years.
Killzone 2 is also an interesting game to examine. It is getting good reviews and will undoubtedly help sales, but I don't feel that Killzone as a brand has become strongly linked to the core Playstation brand in the way that Halo and now Gears of War have becomed entwined with the Xbox brand (of course, that very closeness is a big factor in the difficulties Microsoft has had in expanding the Xbox 360 demographic away from core gamers!) Perhaps this is because the original game launched late in the PS2 lifecycle whereas it is usually games released at the console's launch or soon after that get associated with a platform in the collective consciousness. I don't think there is a big rump of people who are holding off buying a PS3 until Killzone 2 ships, whereas I'm fairly certain there were significant numbers of people who waited for the likes of Metal Gear Solid 4 (and may be waiting for Gran Turismo 5). The series just doesn't have that sort of fanatical following.
More "Trends in Gaming" later this week.
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Trends in Gaming: 2009 will be the year DLC gets done right
In the coming weeks, I’ll be posting a number of articles making predictions about the industry for the rest of the year.
As the year begins, I find myself looking forward to extra downloadable content (DLC) for many of the games I bought in 2008. The new Knothole Island area and items for Fable 2 (already out), the new maps (including the Dawn of the Dead Mall) and modes for Left 4 Dead, the Lost & the Damned expansion for GTAIV (out today), the Beneath the Ashes and Lara’s Shadow levels for Tomb Raider: Underworld - not to mention three separate sets of DLC for Fallout 3 (though I need to play the main game first in that instance).
We’ve come a long way from the "Horse Armor" debacle of 2006 and Bethesda, after that initial mis-step, are leading the way. The Shivering Isles and Knights of the Nine expansions are widely considered some of the very best pieces of DLC to date and people have high hopes for the Fallout 3 expansions.
All the content I’ve listed is premium content (PDLC) – you have to pay for it. Getting the pricing and message for DLC right is of vital importance to publishers as gamers are liable to react badly if they feel (whether rightly or wrongly) that content was cut from the main game so that it could be sold to them for further money at a later date. PDLC that is exclusive to one format is an explosive mixture, as format holders’ non-disclosure agreements will almost certainly prevent the publisher and developer adequately explaining the situation to the consumer. The furore over the TRU content that still rages on the Tomb Raider messageboards is a very good example of this.
Despite these potential pitfalls, in 2009 DLC will become a key part of the console gaming landscape. Publishers are beginning to get a feel for what is the right price and understanding the kind of backlash that poor pricing choices can lead to. DLC keeps your consumer coming back to your game and makes them think twice about trading it in, helping to combat the pressure that used game sales are putting on new sales. Publishers have to give a cut of PDLC sales to the format holders but this is preferable to retail, where they are giving a cut to the retailer and the wholesale distributor on top of paying the format holder's licence fee and manufacturing costs. This is a huge incentive to publishers to maximise revenues and customer retention via prudent releases of DLC .
Perhaps even more importantly, there is fast becoming an assumption among consumers that all A-grade titles will be supported after release with DLC and once this is fully embedded in the consumer mindset, titles that don’t conform will be increasingly seen as second rate. Looking at the Christmas just gone, it is already hard to cite major titles that don't have at least some form of DLC in the pipeline. The Lost and The Damned is getting good reviews and is a major chunk of content, with hefty in-store promotion in the form of a branded points card. It is likely to set the trend for major expansions to the original game, set in the same city, as opposed to the Liberty City, Vice City, San Andreas progression of full-game releases in the PS2 era.
It should also be noted that the extensive catalogues of songs being released for the competing Guitar Hero and Rock Band franchises are also doing a great deal to break down barriers to people buying additional content for their games by direct download.
Personally, I'm pleased to have an excuse to go back to games for a second blast and it gives people who missed a game the first time round a chance to jump in, safe in the knowledge that other people will be playing the game (I'll be trying to get MuppetThumper to try Left 4 Dead when the DLC hits).
Stay tuned for more predictions!
As the year begins, I find myself looking forward to extra downloadable content (DLC) for many of the games I bought in 2008. The new Knothole Island area and items for Fable 2 (already out), the new maps (including the Dawn of the Dead Mall) and modes for Left 4 Dead, the Lost & the Damned expansion for GTAIV (out today), the Beneath the Ashes and Lara’s Shadow levels for Tomb Raider: Underworld - not to mention three separate sets of DLC for Fallout 3 (though I need to play the main game first in that instance).
We’ve come a long way from the "Horse Armor" debacle of 2006 and Bethesda, after that initial mis-step, are leading the way. The Shivering Isles and Knights of the Nine expansions are widely considered some of the very best pieces of DLC to date and people have high hopes for the Fallout 3 expansions.
All the content I’ve listed is premium content (PDLC) – you have to pay for it. Getting the pricing and message for DLC right is of vital importance to publishers as gamers are liable to react badly if they feel (whether rightly or wrongly) that content was cut from the main game so that it could be sold to them for further money at a later date. PDLC that is exclusive to one format is an explosive mixture, as format holders’ non-disclosure agreements will almost certainly prevent the publisher and developer adequately explaining the situation to the consumer. The furore over the TRU content that still rages on the Tomb Raider messageboards is a very good example of this.
Despite these potential pitfalls, in 2009 DLC will become a key part of the console gaming landscape. Publishers are beginning to get a feel for what is the right price and understanding the kind of backlash that poor pricing choices can lead to. DLC keeps your consumer coming back to your game and makes them think twice about trading it in, helping to combat the pressure that used game sales are putting on new sales. Publishers have to give a cut of PDLC sales to the format holders but this is preferable to retail, where they are giving a cut to the retailer and the wholesale distributor on top of paying the format holder's licence fee and manufacturing costs. This is a huge incentive to publishers to maximise revenues and customer retention via prudent releases of DLC .
Perhaps even more importantly, there is fast becoming an assumption among consumers that all A-grade titles will be supported after release with DLC and once this is fully embedded in the consumer mindset, titles that don’t conform will be increasingly seen as second rate. Looking at the Christmas just gone, it is already hard to cite major titles that don't have at least some form of DLC in the pipeline. The Lost and The Damned is getting good reviews and is a major chunk of content, with hefty in-store promotion in the form of a branded points card. It is likely to set the trend for major expansions to the original game, set in the same city, as opposed to the Liberty City, Vice City, San Andreas progression of full-game releases in the PS2 era.
It should also be noted that the extensive catalogues of songs being released for the competing Guitar Hero and Rock Band franchises are also doing a great deal to break down barriers to people buying additional content for their games by direct download.
Personally, I'm pleased to have an excuse to go back to games for a second blast and it gives people who missed a game the first time round a chance to jump in, safe in the knowledge that other people will be playing the game (I'll be trying to get MuppetThumper to try Left 4 Dead when the DLC hits).
Stay tuned for more predictions!
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