Prediction: Codemasters will not survive 2010 in its current form

I predict that long-established UK publisher Codemasters will finally run out of lives in 2010.

The departure of key staff is probably a warning sign and as it gets ever harder for a medium-sized generalist publisher to stay in business, something has to give. "Codies" has allegedly had trouble paying external developers in 2010 and has squandered cash on Far Eastern MMO conversions (not to mention the Dragon Empires fiasco that they airbrushed from history). Despite continued strong performance from its racing franchises, especially DIRT and GRID, 2009 saw a number of titles that have probably not brought in strong revenues, often seemingly due to poor marketing materials and spend (Overlord 2, FUEL) or tough market conditions and lengthy development (Operation Flashpoint 2).

I should point out that in the event of the company going to the wall, the core internal development teams are quite likely to be snapped up by another publisher looking to get into the racing genre. Personally, I feel that Codies should have refocused as a boutique racing game house at least 12 months ago.

Bonus prediction: Depending on how much was paid for it, Codemasters pulled a blinder by picking up the Formula One licence, with the 2009 season being one of the most open and exciting for years and 2010 looking like a mouthwatering prospect with a returning Schumacher facing the British McLaren dream team of Hamilton & Button, along with a reinvigorated Alonso & Massa. I predict that Codies will deliver a strong F1 game and it will sell well. Well enough to make enough money, given the license costs and the continued lack of major interest in F1 in the States, to stop it being their swansong?