Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Trends in Gaming: 2009 will be the year DLC gets done right

In the coming weeks, I’ll be posting a number of articles making predictions about the industry for the rest of the year.

As the year begins, I find myself looking forward to extra downloadable content (DLC) for many of the games I bought in 2008. The new Knothole Island area and items for Fable 2 (already out), the new maps (including the Dawn of the Dead Mall) and modes for Left 4 Dead, the Lost & the Damned expansion for GTAIV (out today), the Beneath the Ashes and Lara’s Shadow levels for Tomb Raider: Underworld - not to mention three separate sets of DLC for Fallout 3 (though I need to play the main game first in that instance).

We’ve come a long way from the "Horse Armor" debacle of 2006 and Bethesda, after that initial mis-step, are leading the way. The Shivering Isles and Knights of the Nine expansions are widely considered some of the very best pieces of DLC to date and people have high hopes for the Fallout 3 expansions.

All the content I’ve listed is premium content (PDLC) – you have to pay for it. Getting the pricing and message for DLC right is of vital importance to publishers as gamers are liable to react badly if they feel (whether rightly or wrongly) that content was cut from the main game so that it could be sold to them for further money at a later date. PDLC that is exclusive to one format is an explosive mixture, as format holders’ non-disclosure agreements will almost certainly prevent the publisher and developer adequately explaining the situation to the consumer. The furore over the TRU content that still rages on the Tomb Raider messageboards is a very good example of this.

Despite these potential pitfalls, in 2009 DLC will become a key part of the console gaming landscape. Publishers are beginning to get a feel for what is the right price and understanding the kind of backlash that poor pricing choices can lead to. DLC keeps your consumer coming back to your game and makes them think twice about trading it in, helping to combat the pressure that used game sales are putting on new sales. Publishers have to give a cut of PDLC sales to the format holders but this is preferable to retail, where they are giving a cut to the retailer and the wholesale distributor on top of paying the format holder's licence fee and manufacturing costs. This is a huge incentive to publishers to maximise revenues and customer retention via prudent releases of DLC .

Perhaps even more importantly, there is fast becoming an assumption among consumers that all A-grade titles will be supported after release with DLC and once this is fully embedded in the consumer mindset, titles that don’t conform will be increasingly seen as second rate. Looking at the Christmas just gone, it is already hard to cite major titles that don't have at least some form of DLC in the pipeline. The Lost and The Damned is getting good reviews and is a major chunk of content, with hefty in-store promotion in the form of a branded points card. It is likely to set the trend for major expansions to the original game, set in the same city, as opposed to the Liberty City, Vice City, San Andreas progression of full-game releases in the PS2 era.

It should also be noted that the extensive catalogues of songs being released for the competing Guitar Hero and Rock Band franchises are also doing a great deal to break down barriers to people buying additional content for their games by direct download.

Personally, I'm pleased to have an excuse to go back to games for a second blast and it gives people who missed a game the first time round a chance to jump in, safe in the knowledge that other people will be playing the game (I'll be trying to get MuppetThumper to try Left 4 Dead when the DLC hits).

Stay tuned for more predictions!

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